11AAA South Dakota Playoff Scenarios for Week 9
The scenarios for 11AAA heading into the final week are not very clear. What is clear though is that Thursday will be a crazy night of football.
Five teams in 11AAA are able to move up or down seed point tiers in the final standings. Because of that, there are many variables that it breaks down for each team. If a team moves up or down a seed point tier, each team that they played during the year will also receive a three point boost or be deducted three points. Sound confusing? Welcome to the SDHSAA seed point system.
Seed points are awarded based on opponents win loss percentage:
.750 and above = 50 points for win, 39 for loss (7 wins or more) *out of 9 games*
.500-.749 = 47 points for win, 36 for loss (5-6 wins)
.250-.499 = 44 points for win, 33 for loss (3-4 wins)
.000-.249 = 41 points for win, 30 for loss (2 wins or lower)
Teams that are on the "bubble" of being into a different tier include:
- O'Gorman (6-2) - Can jump from the 2nd tier into the top tier with a win.
- Aberdeen Central (4-4) - Can fall from the 2nd tier to the 3rd tier with a loss. A win keeps them the same.
- RC Central (2-6) - Can jump from the 4th tier into the 3rd tier with a win.
- Watertown (2-6) - Can jump from the 4th tier into the 3rd tier with a win.
- Lincoln (2-6) - Can jump from the 4th tier into the 3rd tier with a win.
But with playing teams from 11AA, we also have to look at the standings of those teams and if any of those teams are able to move up or down.
- Harrisburg (6-2) - Can jump from the 2nd tier into the top tier with a win
- Spearfish (4-4) - Can fall from the 2nd tier into the 3rd tier with a loss
- Huron (4-4) - Can fall from the 2nd tier into the 3rd tier with a loss
So that all factors into the scenarios for Thursday night. The games that will determine seedings include:
- Washington vs. Roosevelt
- O'Gorman vs. Lincoln
- Brandon Valley vs. Aberdeen Central
- Rapid City Central vs. Rapid City Stevens
- Watertown vs. Brookings
- Harrisburg vs. Yankton
- Spearfish vs. Hot Springs
- Huron vs. Mitchell
Here's how this works. The base number is the current seed points multiplied by eight games played. The base number for a win is how many points that team will have for the win based on the current standings. The base number for a loss is how many points that team will have if they lose based on current standings. Then the teams that change points (+3 = teams that win, -3 = teams that lose) factor into that final total off the base number after a win or loss is determined.
Sounds confusing again? Here's what I can tell you:
- The winner of Washington/Roosevelt will be the top team in 11AAA. The loser will be the 2nd overall seed.
- O'Gorman and Brandon Valley will be the 3rd and 4th seeds regardless of win/loss. The only difference is that Brandon Valley can jump into 3rd with a win and O'Gorman loss.
- Aberdeen Central is in. Rapid City Stevens, even with a loss and Watertown/Lincoln win, will still be in.
- Either Rapid City Central, Watertown, or Lincoln will be left out of the playoffs.
All boils down to RCC/Watertown/LHS coming up with a win this week. RCC clinches a spot with a win and the only way they can get knocked out is a RCC loss, Watertown win, and Lincoln win. If Lincoln beats O'Gorman, they are also in. If all three lose, Watertown is on the out.
It all comes down to Thursday. There are multiple scenarios going into the last games and it is setting up a great night of football. Enjoy the ride!